Erdogan started a subtle game with Putin: Russia could lose both gas and billions of dollars
Earlier, Putin said that Russia was considering building additional underwater gas pipelines to Turkey.
In the eighth month of a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed the proposal of President Putin of the aggressor country to turn Turkey into a regional natural gas supply hub.
It is reported by Bloomberg.
"We have a national distribution center, but it will be international. Our energy ministry and the Russian side will work together. You can't wait here," Erdogan said.
According to the material, Erdogan is convinced that the creation of a regional gas supply hub could potentially make Turkey a key route for Russian flows to Europe.
The gas hub will most likely be created in the region of Thrace, bordering on Greece and Bulgaria.
What is the trap for Putin:
At the same time, according to Forbes, the idea of making Turkey a gas hub could be a trap for Putin.
"It is not clear whether Gazprom will be able to technically implement the project. Russia has only two relatively modern pipelayers - the Akademik Chersky and the Fortuna barge, and the depths in the Black Sea are much greater than in the Baltic ... Politically, such a project is only possible if settlement with Ukraine, but then it will be easier and faster to unblock transit through Poland via the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline.
“Firstly, the design and construction of any new major underwater pipeline would take years,” explains Ronald Smith, senior analyst at BCS World of Investments, Forbes. “Secondly, a political breakthrough is likely to be required to subsequently sell this gas to Europe. And in this case, there are many export capacities through Ukraine and the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline, and it is also possible to repair the Nord Stream lines.
According to the material, the project to expand the southern transit to Europe controlled by Russia and Turkey looks at worst stillborn, at best - of little use, but one way or another will cost Gazprom billions of dollars.
“Obviously, it will not be possible to simply reconfigure flows within the EU, since there are simply no large gas transport bridges between Northwestern and Southern Europe,” said Aleksey Gromov, chief energy director of the Institute of Energy and Finance.
The expert doubts the need for this project, given the determination of the EU countries to abandon Russian gas as soon as possible. “In fact, Russian gas is urgently needed by the EU countries in the next two or three years, and then the need for it will begin to weaken sharply,” the expert notes. “Yes, Europe will pay dearly for its refusal from Russian gas, but we still do not see the EU’s readiness to to any compromises with Russia in matters of its energy supply."
Putin's gas proposal:
On October 13, 2022, the Turkish President met with Putin in Kazakhstan, where they discussed a number of issues, including the transit of Russian gas.
Russia wants to export more gas through Turkey, making it a new gas "hub" in order to maintain its energy influence in Europe.
Turkey offers the most reliable route to deliver gas to the European Union, Putin said, and the proposed platform would allegedly allow prices to be set without politics. The head of the Kremlin told Erdogan that the hub would be "a platform not only for supplies, but also for determining the price, because this is a very important issue."
Relations between Russia and Turkey:
Relations with Turkey, a member of NATO, are vital for Russia at a time when the West has unleashed a wave of economic sanctions on it, from which Ankara refrains, writes Reuters. At the same time, Turkey rejected Russia's actions to attempt the annexation of four Ukrainian regions as a serious violation of international law.
Erdogan sought to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv and achieved a breakthrough in July when he negotiated a grain deal with the UN to allow commercial exports of Ukrainian grain from Russia-blocked Black Sea ports to resume.
Russian officials said before the meeting between Erdogan and Putin that they were ready to listen to Turkey's proposals for holding peace talks with the participation of Russia and the West.
Gas situation:
On August 31, Gazprom suspended gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream 1. The company said that oil leaks were found on parts of the pipeline compressor and the equipment had to be shut down until the leak was fixed.
On September 2, the Russian gas company Gazprom announced a complete halt to gas transportation through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline for an indefinite period. On September 3, the White House reacted to the complete shutdown of Nord Stream.
Against the backdrop of the ongoing shutdown of the Russian Nord Stream gas pipeline, the spot price of gas in Europe on the morning of September 5 jumped by 30% to almost $2,900 per thousand cubic meters.
On September 6, French President Emmanuel Macron supported the options proposed by the European Commission to limit the price of Russian gas.
On September 14, 2022, the EU responded to Putin's gas blackmail.
On September 26, information appeared about gas leaks at Nord Stream. On September 27, it became known about explosions in the area of the leak.
On September 28, 2022, the EU countries demanded to immediately limit the price of gas.
On October 1, it became known that Gazprom had stopped gas supplies to Italy.
On October 1, 2022, Gazprom reduced gas supplies to Moldova.
On October 4, 2022, Turkey decided to make a serious gas offer to Gazprom.
On October 5, Gazprom officially acknowledged the fall in demand for gas.