Interview | The defeat of Russia must be catastrophic. Perhaps this winter - Francis Fukuyama.
Political scientist Francis Fukuyama on whether there is a future in Russia, why Ukraine will win and what Zelensky should pay attention to after the war
Francis Fukuyama is an American political scientist and director of the Center for Democracy and the Rule of Law at Stanford University. He has written many scholarly works on international politics, economic development and democracy. He pays special attention in his research to Eastern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union. Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Fukuyama has been closely following and commenting on the causes and possible consequences of this war for the world.
In his opinion, Ukraine can win before the end of this winter, and Russia will have a chance to change only if it suffers a crushing defeat.
We are talking the day after the massive attack by the Russians on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Francis Fukuyama starts the conversation by asking about those shellings and wonders if they hurt us.
In this interview, we talked about why Russia will lose and whether it has a chance for the future, what will happen if Vladimir Putin uses nuclear weapons, and also what challenges post-war Ukraine will face.
"IF NATO GET INTO THE FIGHT, RUSSIA WILL BE DESTROYED"
– Why do you think Putin went to this escalation right now? He himself, of course, convinces that this is a reaction to the explosion on the Crimean bridge. But the Ukrainian intelligence services said that the attack on the energy infrastructure had been planned for a long time.
“There is a lot of evidence of divisions among the Moscow elites, and a lot of criticism of Putin from hardliners. Many people who criticized his methods of warfare said that he should attack Ukrainian infrastructure. It seems that Kadyrov even said that Putin should use nuclear weapons. Therefore, apparently, he is under strong pressure from ardent nationalists in Russia.
He has to satisfy these people somehow. Bombardment of the civilian population of Ukraine is the only possible method of attack for him. This is terrible in terms of results for civilians, but in no way affects the course of the war. He continues to lose on the battlefield.
I think it's important that Ukraine made it clear that such a terrorist attack would not stop its success. Ukrainians are not afraid. Politically, it doesn't give a reason to say, "Oh yes, we should stop and talk to the Russians." Rather, the opposite is true - such actions only strengthen the determination to fight.
Hardliners are increasingly talking about the terrible things they think Russia should do in Ukraine. But the truth is that they are not able to do this because Ukraine has destroyed so much of the Russian army and its potential. They don't have enough high-precision cruise missiles to hit their targets. They show weakness on many fronts and finally Ukraine will come out on top anyway.