New nuclear provocation. What intelligence warns about
Against the background of the war in Ukraine, tensions over Taiwan and the escalation of US-China rivalry, another geopolitical crisis is brewing
North Korea, after a three-year pause in its nuclear provocations, is preparing for its seventh nuclear test, which could be held ahead of the November 8 US midterm elections, intelligence agencies warn.
Five years ago, the world faced the prospect of "fire and fury" as North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un and then-US President Donald Trump exchanged threats of nuclear war. Then came the illusory peace as Kim met with various world leaders to secure sanctions relief in exchange for vague promises to partially scale back his nuclear program.
After the failed Hanoi summit with Trump in 2019, Kim returned to Pyongyang, where he soon imposed a nationwide lockdown in a fruitless attempt to avoid the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the DPRK's nuclear and missile weapons program continued to move forward rapidly.
Kim signaled intentions to increase the DPRK's nuclear potential by starting his diplomatic games in early 2018, and he was true to his word. Today, Kim's arsenal is estimated to include 50 nuclear warheads. In addition, in 2020 (just after testing a new type of submarine-launched ballistic missile), Kim unveiled a large new long-range missile at a nightly military parade designed to showcase the regime's military might. And in 2021, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that North Korea had resumed plutonium enrichment activities. Shortly thereafter, a long-range cruise missile was tested, as well as a new supersonic missile capable of carrying a nuclear charge.
Since the beginning of this year, in violation of UN Security Council resolutions, North Korea has launched more than 40 ballistic missiles, including during a September visit by US Vice President Kamala Harris to Japan and South Korea. One of the rockets flew over Japan. In addition, the North Korean regime has resumed illegal reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel (plutonium) at the Yongbyon facility and, satellite imagery shows, has begun work at the Pungeri nuclear test site, raising concerns about the impending seventh nuclear test.
The determination with which Kim uses his nuclear arsenal to intimidate enemies, along with the changed geopolitical landscape due to the war in Ukraine, increases the likelihood that the DPRK will again begin to threaten "fire and fury." This threat to regional stability and global security is very serious.
It is difficult to say how seriously Kim Jong Un or his predecessors (Kim Jong Il, his father, and Kim Il Sung, his grandfather and founder of the North Korean regime) took denuclearization. For decades, however, the US and other governments have tried in vain to push North Korea away from its nuclear weapons program by combining pressure with security guarantees and economic incentives.
World leaders should believe Kim when he says that North Korea's nuclear capability is the country's "true shield" and "cherished sword" and he will never give it up. In September, when announcing a new law allowing a nuclear strike if a foreign power tries to remove him from power, Kim said his regime would "never give up" nuclear weapons. “There is no denuclearization, no negotiations, no tokens in this process,” he said.
Kim's behavior is explained by an unwavering desire to be recognized (however reluctantly) as the leader of a nuclear power, just as the international community eventually recognized Pakistan and India as nuclear powers. He abandoned the previous approaches of the DPRK - "action in exchange for action", that is, a step-by-step easing of sanctions in exchange for restrictions on the nuclear program. As a result, he ignores repeated attempts by the Biden administration to restart negotiations on denuclearization.
Instead, Kim demands that the US withdraw its forces from South Korea, as well as strategic weapons from the region, which is completely unrealistic. Going forward, North Korea is likely to start calling for talks with the US on nuclear arms reductions. It would be a symbol that it is finally being considered a nuclear peer and not a rogue state.
Kim will probably try to take advantage of America's diplomatic differences with Russia and China. The Kim regime has long mastered the art of exploiting differences between the major powers to its advantage. However, after the end of the Cold War, their opportunities on this front were limited due to the fact that America's relations with the main patrons of the DPRK - China and Russia - were generally positive.
The rapidly deteriorating relationship between the US and Russia and between the US and China has changed the game. The strategic alliance between North Korean President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin ensures that neither will, along with the West, discipline Kim. Xi Jinping and Putin are now flirting with Western opponents rather than seeking to punish them. As long as his patrons block any anti-DPRK initiatives in the UN Security Council, Kim can pursue his nuclear ambitions unhindered.
In principle, both China and Russia oppose North Korea's nuclear program. The Chinese leadership fears the possible negative consequences of nuclear tests conducted near the country's borders. Kim likely won't conduct a seventh nuclear bomb test before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China concludes, but he understands that at the moment neither Xi nor Putin can afford to pressure North Korea in any meaningful way. .
Moreover, Xi and Putin have an interest in Kim diverting US attention and resources away from Taiwan and Ukraine, respectively. Seen in this light, the latest wave of North Korean missile launches could be the beginning of a dangerous escalation cycle that could culminate in "fire and fury" claims becoming reality.
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